Libs, Tories start campaign in dead heat, with NDP, Greens tied: poll

Survey suggests Conservative support at 35 per cent nationally, Liberal at 34 per cent

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raises the arm of Carleton Liberal candidate Chris Rogers (left) attends as he attends and election campaign event in Manotick, Ontario, Monday September 9,2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives were running neck-and-neck during warm-up laps for the start of the 40-day federal election campaign, a new poll suggests.

The Leger poll — released just hours before Trudeau fired the starting gun Wednesday — suggests Jagmeet Singh’s NDP and Elizabeth May’s Greens were also in a dead heat, competing for a distant third place.

It put Conservative support at 35 per cent nationally to the Liberals’ 34 per cent — essentially a tie.

The NDP and Greens were also tied at 11 per cent, with Maxime Bernier’s fledgling People’s Party bringing up the rear with just three per cent.

The poll of 1,546 eligible voters selected from Leger’s online panel was conducted Sept. 6-9. Internet-based surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because online polls are not considered random samples.

The poll suggests the Liberals were ahead in Ontario and Quebec, the two provinces that account for almost 60 per cent of the 338 seats up for grabs, but the battle among the smaller parties could ultimately decide which of the two main parties wins the big prize.

In Ontario, support for the Liberals stood at 37 per cent, compared to 31 per cent for the Conservatives, 15 per cent for both the Greens and NDP and two per cent for the People’s Party.

In Quebec, the Liberals enjoyed the support of 37 per cent, well ahead of the Conservatives at 22 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at 21 per cent, the Greens at 10 per cent, the NDP at six per cent and the People’s Party at five per cent.

The Liberals are counting on making gains in the two largest provinces to compensate for losses elsewhere. But Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque said Liberal hopes of cashing in on a possible NDP collapse in Quebec could be stymied by the Conservatives and the Bloc. Both were in the range needed to pick up seats in the province.

READ MORE: Federal election campaign begins with leaders in Ontario, Quebec and B.C.

The Liberals were also leading comfortably in Atlantic Canada, with 53 per cent support compared to 28 per cent for the Conservatives, nine per cent for the NDP, seven for the Greens and three for the People’s Party.

The Conservatives were the overwhelming favourites in Alberta and Manitoba/Saskatchewan, with 60 per cent and 57 per cent respectively — provinces where they already hold the vast majority of seats and have little to gain.

B.C. was more of a toss-up, with the Conservatives at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 33, the NDP at 15, the Greens at 10 and the People’s Party at four.

The poll suggests the Liberals still have hope of picking up Green and NDP supporters, although that’s somewhat diminished by the fact that the Greens and NDP are now more likely to trade votes.

Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Vernon firefighters respond to car fire

No smoke or visible flames seen in Bella Vista Road incident

Goose cull proposed in Vernon

Three options to manage bird populations in popular parks pitched to councillors

Greater Vernon area gives film industry a boost

Regional District of North Okanagan’s contributes $2K to film commission

Dust warning still in effect for Vernon

Enivronment Ministry, Interior Health maintain dust advisory warning until further notice

Railroad police on patrol in Vernon

CN Police remind residents to stay off the tracks while blockades continue across Canada

VIDEO: B.C. senior recalls ‘crazy’ wartime decision to grab bear cub from den

Henry Martens – now 96 – says he was lucky to be alive after youthful decision to enter a bear’s den

Regional district gives approval for farm worker housing near Summerland

Application is for 41-bedroom facility to be constructed in Meadow Valley area

Trudeau: Time for blockades to end and Indigenous leaders to work with government

Prime minister says situation in Coastal GasLink pipeline dispute is ‘unacceptable and untenable’

GoFundMe campaign started for young Kelowna girl in need of service dog

Alena suffered from an in utero MCA stroke, that affected most of the right side of her brain

New City of Kelowna strategy for community education about supportive housing

The model seeks to enhance community engagement, accessibility and transparency

RCMP clarifies stance on removing officers from Wet’suwet’en territory in northern B.C.

Police say will remove officers only if hereditary chiefs keep road open to pipeline workers

COLUMN: Losing and winning a book battle

Recalling a time when outraged parents spoke out against a book on the school curriculum

COLUMN: Acknowledging the freedom to read

We provide full access to material that some might find objectionable

Shuswap protest blockade temporarily lifted following negotiation with CP Rail

Onus placed on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to respond

Most Read