Libs, Tories start campaign in dead heat, with NDP, Greens tied: poll

Survey suggests Conservative support at 35 per cent nationally, Liberal at 34 per cent

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raises the arm of Carleton Liberal candidate Chris Rogers (left) attends as he attends and election campaign event in Manotick, Ontario, Monday September 9,2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives were running neck-and-neck during warm-up laps for the start of the 40-day federal election campaign, a new poll suggests.

The Leger poll — released just hours before Trudeau fired the starting gun Wednesday — suggests Jagmeet Singh’s NDP and Elizabeth May’s Greens were also in a dead heat, competing for a distant third place.

It put Conservative support at 35 per cent nationally to the Liberals’ 34 per cent — essentially a tie.

The NDP and Greens were also tied at 11 per cent, with Maxime Bernier’s fledgling People’s Party bringing up the rear with just three per cent.

The poll of 1,546 eligible voters selected from Leger’s online panel was conducted Sept. 6-9. Internet-based surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because online polls are not considered random samples.

The poll suggests the Liberals were ahead in Ontario and Quebec, the two provinces that account for almost 60 per cent of the 338 seats up for grabs, but the battle among the smaller parties could ultimately decide which of the two main parties wins the big prize.

In Ontario, support for the Liberals stood at 37 per cent, compared to 31 per cent for the Conservatives, 15 per cent for both the Greens and NDP and two per cent for the People’s Party.

In Quebec, the Liberals enjoyed the support of 37 per cent, well ahead of the Conservatives at 22 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at 21 per cent, the Greens at 10 per cent, the NDP at six per cent and the People’s Party at five per cent.

The Liberals are counting on making gains in the two largest provinces to compensate for losses elsewhere. But Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque said Liberal hopes of cashing in on a possible NDP collapse in Quebec could be stymied by the Conservatives and the Bloc. Both were in the range needed to pick up seats in the province.

READ MORE: Federal election campaign begins with leaders in Ontario, Quebec and B.C.

The Liberals were also leading comfortably in Atlantic Canada, with 53 per cent support compared to 28 per cent for the Conservatives, nine per cent for the NDP, seven for the Greens and three for the People’s Party.

The Conservatives were the overwhelming favourites in Alberta and Manitoba/Saskatchewan, with 60 per cent and 57 per cent respectively — provinces where they already hold the vast majority of seats and have little to gain.

B.C. was more of a toss-up, with the Conservatives at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 33, the NDP at 15, the Greens at 10 and the People’s Party at four.

The poll suggests the Liberals still have hope of picking up Green and NDP supporters, although that’s somewhat diminished by the fact that the Greens and NDP are now more likely to trade votes.

Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

QUIZ: Do you know the truth?

In what has been described as a post-truth era, how much do you know about truth and lies?

Tech mogul looks to grow Vernon’s presence in Okanagan wine industry

The founder of online dating site Plenty of Fish is developing 900 acres in the city hillsides

North Okanagan ranch needs support to stay afloat

Founded in 1867, a fundraiser has been launched for the Historic O’Keefe Ranch

Bronze for Vernon’s Casey Brown at Psychosis mountain bike race

Brown finished third at the Aug. 5 race in Golden, part of the CLIF Crankworx Summer Series

Pup stolen from Vernon temporary shelter reunited with owner

Nicola Sanders says her son’s puppy was ‘overjoyed’ to see her owner again

53 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths cap off week of high infection rates in B.C.

Roughly 1,500 people are self-isolating because they either have COVID-19 or have been exposed to it

Mitchell’s Musings: Hockey’s comeback begins in earnest in August

Sports is back. Well, at least sports in a bubble is back.… Continue reading

VIDEO: Internet famous Yukon-based bhangra dancer explores Vancouver Island

Gurdeep Pandher spreads joy through dance, forms cross-cultural connections amid pandemic

Fentanyl-laced powder being sold as cocaine in Kamloops

Interior Health has released a warning about very strong fentanyl in Kamloops

Unofficial holidays: the weird and wonderful things people celebrate around the world

On any given day of the year, there are several strange, silly or serious holidays to observe

Video: Enraged man terrifies staff and customers at Shuswap restaurant

Video on Facebook shows the man hurling profanity at workers during the dinner rush on Aug. 7.

Moving on: Tanev scores 11 seconds into OT as Canucks oust Wild

Vancouver beats Minnesota 5-4 to move into first round of NHL playoffs

Number of Kelowna-linked COVID-19 cases grows to 159

Interior Health reported four new cases region-wide on Friday, 18 remain active

Gene editing debate takes root with organic broccoli, new UBC research shows

Broccoli is one of the best-known vegetables with origins in this scientific haze

Most Read