B.C.’s health ministry modelling shows the province tracking closer to South Korea than Hubei province and Northern Italy. (B.C. government)

B.C.’s latest COVID-19 modelling shows restrictions flattening curve

‘This is not the end,’ Dr. Bonnie Henry says of success so far

B.C. continues to see encouraging signs in its efforts to stem the spread of the coronavirus causing COVID-19 illness, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says.

Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix released their second batch of case modelling April 17, showing significant improvement from projections released in the initial study in mid-March. The model results show that B.C.’s case rate and actual intensive care unit admission rate tracking closer to South Korea’s success in controlling the spread, and significantly better than Quebec and Ontario in recent weeks.

“Our actual case rates and hospital and ICU admission rates have been far below what could have been based on other jurisdictions’ experience and data,” Henry said. “We are experiencing a slowing in our rate of new diagnosis over the last few days, and a stabilization of the number of cases we have in hospital and ICU.

“And the difference, really between what could have been and what has happened, is because of the collective actions that we have taken across the province to maintain those safe distances and to stop the chains of transmission.”

With the success in keeping down the number of hospitalized cases of the novel coronavirus, the health ministry is preparing to resume scheduling surgeries beyond the most urgent that have been done as the pandemic began. If there is no surge of new severe COVID-19 cases, that could begin by early May.

RELATED: New survey puts Canada’s response in top 15 globally

RELATED: Federal wage subsidy payments coming in early May

RELATED: B.C. COVID-19 data and graphs up to April 15

Henry emphasized that B.C.’s success is due to public health actions taken earlier than Ontario and Quebec, and not due to “herd immunity” being developed in the B.C. population as exposure has spread.

“Now is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, to quote Churchill,” Henry said. “But it is perhaps somewhere near the end of the beginning of this pandemic, and we’re now planning for our future over the coming months.”


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislatureCoronavirus

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Township of Spallumcheen opens office to public again

Protocols in place but you can do business in office if you so choose

North Okanagan Minor Lacrosse cancels box season

COVID-19 wipes out indoor lacrosse; group hopeful outdoor field season will start in August

Vancouver Foundation grants benefit Okanagan-Shuswap residents

Grants of up to $500 available for ideas that connect people socially or involve sharing skills

Water quality advisory rescinded for Killiney Beach customers

Turbidity levels improve enough to rescind advisory issued May 11

UPDATED: Two sent to hospital by air ambulance following Enderby highway accident

Drivers involved in collision on Highway 97A in Enderby; serious, but not life-threatening injuries

LIVE: Procession to honour Snowbirds Capt. Jennifer Casey comes to Halifax

Snowbirds service member died in a crash in Kamloops one week ago

RCMP facing ‘systemic sustainability challenges’ due to provincial policing role

Provinces, territories and municipalities pay anywhere from 70 to 90 per cent of the cost of the RCMP’s services

One man dead after standoff with Chilliwack RCMP

The Independent Investigations Office of B.C. is investigating the RCMP’s role in the death

B.C. employers worry about safety, cash flow, second wave in COVID-19 restart

A survey found 75 per cent of businesses worry about attracting customers

Ex-BC Greens leader Andrew Weaver says province came close to early election

Disagreement centred on the LNG Canada project in northern B.C.

Canada’s NHL teams offer options to season-ticket holders

Canadian teams are offering refunds, but also are pushing a number of incentives to let them keep the money

B.C. premier says lessons to learn from past racism during response to pandemic

B.C. formally apologized in the legislature chamber in 2008 for its role in the Komagata Maru tragedy

Summerland once had Old English theme

Design guidelines were introduced in late 1980s

Snowbirds to remain at Kamloops Airport indefinitely after fatal crash

small contingent of the Snowbirds team is staying in Kamloops, acting as stewards of the jets

Most Read